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Week 6 props: Will Jets give Dalvin Cook a look?

Week 6 marks the end of the London games on the schedule, with the morning meeting between Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Bye weeks are in the mix again with four teams off last week and the Packers and Steelers off in Week 6.

Here are our top five player props for Week 6.

–Raiders tight end Michael Mayer under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Mayer’s two catches for 39 yards in Week 5 equates to a breakout performance, considering he was targeted twice with one catch for 2 yards in his previous four games.

Mayer, active for all five games this season while playing at least 40 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, did see an increased snap count to 66 percent in Week 5.

We’re not convinced we can read too much into that.

After all, it was the first time this season that Mayer saw close to 10 percent more of the snaps than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.

The Raiders are coming off a game against a Packers team that ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. This week, they’ll face a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (142) to tight ends.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick should be familiar with Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from his time in New England. Look for Belichick to try and take away the middle of the field and force Garoppolo to beat him outside the numbers.

–Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
The Dolphins are the second-highest favorites on the board this week for several reasons. Carolina is still winless on the year and ranks 29th defensively in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

However, a closer look reveals that Carolina’s defensive frailty might have more to do with stopping the run.

The Panthers actually rank dead last in EPA (expected points added) against the run, but they’re ninth in EPA against the pass.

As a result, the Dolphins’ running game should be on prominent display.

Even with Miami’s standout rookie running back De’Von Achane set to miss the next four games with a knee injury, you can argue that there’s a bit of a plug-and-play aspect with the Dolphins’ ground game.

While Achane drew plenty of headlines with his 460 rushing yards through four games and 12.1 yards per carry, Raheem Mostert has also been productive with 5.4 yards per carry.

Chris Brooks will likely see more touches, and even though he only has nine carries on the year, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

With Miami being such heavy favorites at home against a team that struggles to stop the run, this doesn’t feel like a game where the Dolphins will have to rely on Tagovailoa’s arm to lead them to victory.

–Rams tight end Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
After back-to-back games with five receptions, Higbee had two grabs on three targets in Week 5. But there was another critical development in their recent game against the Eagles as Cooper Kupp returned from injury.

Kupp missed the first four weeks due to a hamstring strain. In his first game back, he saw 12 targets and caught eight passes for 118 yards.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua left Van Jefferson expendable and he was traded to the Falcons.

Bettors can attribute some correlation here with Kupp’s return and a decline in Higbee’s production. There’s only one ball to go around, and we think Higbee will find himself even lower down the pecking order in Week 6.

–Breece Hall under 13.5 rush attempts (-125 at DraftKings)
Hall is fresh off a breakout game with 22 carries for 177 yards to help the Jets beat the Broncos. However, that performance came against a defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run.

This week, the Jets face an Eagles’ run defense currently ninth in EPA. While there’s no question that the Jets are stepping up in class, Hall’s heavy workload in Week 5 makes him even more of a fade candidate this week against the Eagles.

It’s worth noting that he didn’t register more than 12 carries in any of his first four games.

The Jets are as high as seven-point home underdogs, with the Eagles coming to town. And if they have to play from behind, the Eagles will likely force them into passing situations where they’ll have to abandon the run.

–Dalvin Cook over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
We like correlated plays, and this one makes some sense: All in on Cook’s rushing prop to go over 13.5 yards.

We’re not asking for a ton of yardage here, as Cook has already gone over this number in four of five games this season.

The seventh-year pro is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and he’s at that age (28) where we tend to see some decline in production at the running back position.

However, Cook still has a role to play on this Jets team as he can help carry some of the load at running back with Hall only in his second season as a pro.

With coaches very mindful of the workload for their running backs game by game, look for some of Hall’s carries to go to Cook in Week 6.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

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